Iran International political analyst
The clerical government in Iran is currently grappling with at least seven significant domestic and international crises, creating what can be described as a "mega-crisis" for the whole political system and its leadership.
Crisis 1: Setbacks for Hamas, Hezbollah, and Bashar al-Assad
The severe defeats suffered by Iran's proxy groups, Hamas and Hezbollah, along with Bashar al-Assad in Syria facing downfall, have severely destabilized Iran's regional alliances.
Hamas and Hezbollah have been significantly weakened by heavy military losses and the elimination of key leaders. Meanwhile, Assad's forces have faced a string of defeats, particularly the rapid loss of vast areas of the country, key military bases and the apparent disintegration of its military units.
These developments have undermined Iran’s ability to rely on its regional allies against the United States, Israel, and other players, a stark contrast to just a year ago when Iranian officials boasted of their "strategic depth" and influence reaching the Mediterranean.
Crisis 2: Threat of Direct Confrontation with Israel
Iran’s long-held dream of directly confronting Israel has turned into a nightmare as the possibility of severe retaliation looms large.
Israel, leveraging current geopolitical conditions and the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, is reportedly working to weaken not just Hamas and Hezbollah but also Iran-backed forces like Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi and Yemen’s Houthis. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear and missile programs could become targets of Israeli strikes. Israel’s October 26 air strike on key targets in Iran demonstrated the vulnerable state of Tehran’s air defenses and Israel’s modern military superiority.
Israeli intelligence’s deep penetration into Iran’s security infrastructure has heightened fears within Tehran, including concerns over the potential assassination of top officials, even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Crisis 3: Trump’s return and a hardline US administration
The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House with a team of hawkish policymakers poses a major challenge for the Islamic Republic.
Unlike the Biden administration, Trump’s team has no intention of immediately pursuing diplomacy with Iran, instead favoring a return to the "maximum pressure" campaign. Figures like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, known for their aggressive stance on Iran, are expected to play leading roles in this strategy.
Crisis 4: Europe’s shift toward a hardline stance
Europe has adopted a much tougher stance against Tehran, driven by concerns over Iranian missiles and drones supplied to Russia in the Ukraine war, Iran’s nuclear program, and its development of ballistic missiles.
This shift has resulted in new sanctions on key Iranian entities, including the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and Iran Air. Europe now appears more aligned with the United States on its Iran policy.
Crisis 5: Domestic economic and financial collapse
Iran faces an unprecedented financial and economic crisis, marked by severe budget deficits, the inability to fund long-existing subsidies, pay pensions, or cover infrastructure costs.
Reports indicate that the National Development Fund, or Iran’s sovereign wealth fund, is nearly depleted, with much of its resources diverted to military and proxy activities. Energy shortages, including electricity, gas, and gasoline, have exacerbated the crisis, severely impacting both citizens and industries.
Crisis 6: Deepening divide between government and people
A significant and growing gap between the government and the public has fueled unrest. This divide spans economic, political, social, and cultural issues, with increasing dissatisfaction over the government’s inability to address basic needs like energy and its imposition of restrictive policies such as mandatory hijab and internet censorship.
Far from meeting promises of dignity and respect, particularly for women, these policies have only intensified public anger. The government’s disregard for protests and demands has deepened this rift, placing society on the brink of widespread unrest reminiscent of earlier mass uprisings in 2017, 2019 and 2022.
Crisis 7: The challenge of finding a successor to Ali Khamenei
One of the most pressing challenges for the system is the question of succession for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This issue has consumed the leadership’s focus, raising serious concerns about navigating this critical transition without endangering the very survival of the ruling establishment.
Its inability to manage social and economic crises, combined with external pressures, has made the succession issue a complex and multifaceted challenge.
A mega-crisis
These seven interwoven crises have converged into a "mega-crisis," placing the Islamic Republic in one of the most challenging periods of its existence. The path forward remains uncertain, with mounting pressure from both internal and external fronts threatening the regime’s stability.
